A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
